SQJ Taipei

Well last week’s game with ISU was one of the strangest games I’ve ever experienced. The initial look at the stats would lead one to believe that ISU had a chance… but the game really wasn’t in doubt. Because the NU offense and special teams either turned the ball over almost immediately OR scored very quickly… ISU had the ball for 40 of 60 minutes and ran over 100 plays. I wonder if a team that lost has ever had that combination of stats before. And the game wasn’t actually as close as the 35-17 score indicates. Like I said… a strange game. But, the Husker D played well… made plays… and for the 2nd straight week Bo Ruud ran an INT back for 6… this one off a tip by Grixby and for 93 yards where he ran like my neighbor back in Bellevue… weaving all over the field to elude the final potential tackler. It was great.

On to this week

NU visits Missouri… where they haven’t had much success since Osborne retired. Mizzou is an enigma in the college football world. The state has a high enough population to recruit from and enough sports fans to have a GREAT program. Although they have been good at times in history, and sometimes have an above average season, they underperform expectations it seems… almost every year. There is no way Nebraska should have a chance against Mizzou in any given year and yet, overall, NU dominates the series and there is no reason to believe that Mizzou isn’t a paper tiger this year too. They just haven’t proven anything at all against the teams they’ve played so far… although the W over Illinois may prove to be a nice win.

Am I slamming on Mizzou? Not at all. Just looking at history… and throwing in some acknowledgment that it is almost impossible to really know how good they are this year since they’ve played against really poor opponents. At this point… I don’t know what Mizzou has done ON THE FIELD to make me think they’ll dominate NU in this game although that is what many Mizzou fans and the media seem to think will happen.

We do know that Mizzou’s offense is VERY LEGIT. They have a great QB and RB and have some great WRs and TEs. They use their TEs like WRs… splitting them out most of the time and throwing to them more than half the time. They often use no RB and go 5 WR. NU will see that look A LOT because NU seems to get NO pass pressure from their front 4 and Mizzou won’t need the RB as an extra blocker. Fortunately, NU’s secondary is quite good and I think probably most people don’t realize it. Mizzou will get their yards… LOTS OF THEM… and probably get their points… PROBABLY LOTS OF THEM. Their offense is very good.

However, Mizzou’s defense is completely untested and hasn’t exactly passed the relatively easy tests given them so far. Again, I’m not saying they are horrid… but unproven. NU fans are quick to throw NU’s defense under the bus… but I think if you look at the stats for Mizzou and factor in who they’ve played… NU’s defense looks like the 75 Steelers and Mizzou looks like… hmmm…. the 1983 Husker D? If NU’s D is suspect… Mizzou’s is even more so. And I like NU’s QB, RB, and WR over their Mizzou counterparts. Chase Daniel is a great QB, but Keller is great/awesome. Tony Temple is a good RB, but Marlon Lucky and his backups are at least as good and can catch the ball, and NU’s WR are probably the tops in the Big XII WHEN THEY CATCH THE BALL.

So… I don’t see why picking Mizzou is so obvious other than the fact that NU played like freshman girls the entire second half in 2005. This does seem to be a good MATCHUP for Mizzou though… particularly with ZERO pressure from NU’s Dline.

However… I think that ANYONE who tells you they know what will happen in this game should be politely nodded at… without buying anything they are telling you. Myself included.

Here’s my guess as to the probability of the following outcomes.

And I’d say there is about a 15% chance the game goes to OT. If so… there is a 90%+ chance NU wins.

My pick? Hardest one of the season… it is the first game where I’m really not sure who the winner will be. I’ll say:

NU 39
Mizzou 31

But I wouldn’t be surprised if the final is within a field goal.

GO

BIG

RED

Some highlights v. ISU last week follow